NAA Ad Forecast

Jen: The Newspaper Association of America calculated the industry's ad revenue forecast for the remainder of 2008 and 2009. For 2008, the association is estimating that print revenue will fall 12.5% while total revenue will drop 11.5%. The numbers look at little better in 2009 with total revenue declining 5.5%.

A note about classified ad revenue: In 2007, it represented 31% of total ad revenue. By 2009, it's expected to represent 24%.

 

Here is a look at the numbers (along with 2007 ad revenue for comparison purposes). Revenue ($) is in billions. The percent change is year-over-year.

2007  
Retail $21.0   -5.0%    National  $7.0    -6.7%     Classified $14.1    -16.5%   Total Print $42.2    -9.4%       Online $3.1   +18.8%   Grand Total  $45.3    -7.9%

2008  
Retail: $19.4    -7.3%   National: $6.4    -7.9%     Classified: $11.0  -22.4%    Total Print: $36.9    -12.5%   Online: $3.2    +1.8%     Grand Total: $40.1    -11.5%

2009  
Retail: $18.8    -3.0%    National: $6.1    -5.0%    Classified: $9.4      -14.5%    $34.4     Total Print:-6.8%   Online: $3.5    +9.0%     Grand Total: $37.9    -5.5%   

               

Comments

[Tim Windsor]

The question, though, is how credible is the NAA when predicting newspaper company revenue trends?

In December, they presented their prediction for 2008: Down 1.2%

Actual 2008: Down 11.5%

Big difference.

http://timwindsor.com/2008/10/03/reports-of-citizen-journalisms-demise-are-premature/

[Tim Windsor]

Sorry, wrong link above. Correct one here:

http://timwindsor.com/2008/10/03/gazing-into-naas-2009-crystal-ball-and-seeing-very-different-things/

[Richard Wakefield]

First, the NAA advertising expenditures series is not an estimate of revenue; rather, it is an estimate of the total cost to advertisers to place advertising content in newspapers. Newspaper revenue is between 60% and 65% of the NAA number. it is incorrect, and misleading, to refer to the series as an ad revenue series.

Also, our forecast of the NAA advertising expenditures series updated September, 2008 (www.glenncoconsulting.com) shows a 2008 estimate of total ad expenditure will be $38.5 billion with "Print" at $35.4 billion and "Online" at $3.1 billion... a decline from 2007 of 15.2% and $1.7 billion less than the NAA estimate.

For 2009, we are forecasting an additional 16.5% drop from 2008: $32.1 billion - a difference of -$5.8 billion relative to NAA.

Since the early 2000's economic recovery, the newspaper advertising series have become "uncoupled" from national macroeconomic trends. Our predictive models use the apparent historical trend lines reaching back to 1971 for "Print" and 2003 for "Online".

For further information, go to www.glenncoconsulting.com. Among other info, you will find a reconciliation of our forecast for q2, 2008 to the NAA reported numbers.

Thanks.